Bitcoin Climbs Back to $106K as Ceasefire Hopes and Rate-Cut Speculation Lift Sentiment

Bitcoin rallied to around $106,000 after sparking a sharp rebound from roughly $98,500 over the weekend, driven by easing tensions in the Middle East and renewed optimism over possible Federal Reserve rate cuts. The move underscored strong institutional buying despite lingering uncertainty in global markets.

The rally followed declarations of a “total ceasefire” between Israel and Iran, announced by former President Trump. Though the truce may be fragile—with both nations accused of violations—markets reacted positively, with money rotating out of safe-haven assets like gold and oil, and into equities and cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin’s bounce reflects this shift toward risk-on sentiment.

Despite the encouraging price action, some traders remain cautious. The rebound triggered about $193 million in liquidations of long positions—modest given the size of Bitcoin’s leveraged market, which totals around $68 billion. Comparatively, price drops of this nature are not unusual, having occurred several times over the past month without triggering sustained downside moves .

A notable signal accompanying the rebound was an 8% drop in Bitcoin’s hashrate, which fell to approximately 865 exahashes per second—prompting speculation that mining operations in regions like Iran may have slowed. However, analysts point out that hashrate fluctuations are often temporary and could relate to energy disruptions in other locations, such as storm-impacted regions in the U.S.

Looking ahead, the interplay between geopolitical developments and macroeconomic outlooks will be key. Oil price declines and falling Treasury yields—linked to rate-cut expectations—could sustain the current crypto rally. Still, lingering Middle Eastern tensions mean the truce may not hold, and renewed pressure could resurface. Institutional interest remains firm, but volatility is likely to persist.