Deutsche Bank Survey Predicts Bitcoin Could Fall Below $20,000

A survey by Deutsche Bank shows a pessimistic outlook for the price of bitcoin, with 33% of respondents expecting it to fall below $20,000 by 2024, and 15% expecting it to stabilize between $40,000 and $75,000.

The survey, conducted by Deutsche Bank from January 15 to 19, 2024, involved 2,000 respondents from the United States, the United Kingdom and the eurozone, and showed that people are quite pessimistic about the price outlook for bitcoin. The survey results indicate that more than a third of respondents believe that by the end of 2024, the value of bitcoin may drop to below $20,000. In contrast, about 15% of respondents maintain a more optimistic view, expecting the price of bitcoin to stabilize between $40,000 and $20,000. by the end of the year it will reach $75,000.

The bearish sentiment of retail investors is influenced by various factors, including the recent performance of bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market. Due to the excitement of the launch of the spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the United States, the price of bitcoin reached a peak of about $49,000 on January 11, 2024, and then fell sharply, falling to around $39,791. A report by Deutsche Bank analysts indicates that the launch of the new spot bitcoin ETF may further institutionalize bitcoin, but most of the ETF funds come from retail investors.

In addition, the survey highlights the broader concerns of people about the stability of the cryptocurrency market. More than half of the respondents expressed concern that cryptocurrencies will experience a major crash in the next two years, which may be caused by events such as the collapse of the cryptocurrency exchange FTX and the stablecoin terraUSD (UST) in 2022, as well as the continued regulatory crackdown. in the United States

In the context of the bitcoin ETF, the market experienced a record outflow of funds, especially affecting the bitcoin trust ETF of Grayscale Investments, although it has shown a positive trend overall since its launch. Industry experts and companies, including Tesla, still have a positive long-term outlook for bitcoin, expecting a large amount of money to flow into the ETF.

These findings and market behavior reflect the cautious or skeptical attitude of people towards the future of cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin, amid regulatory uncertainty and past market issues. The survey also highlights the huge gap in people’s understanding of crypto, with two-thirds of consumers admitting that they know little or nothing about digital assets, which may exacerbate people’s cautious sentiment.

In summary, although the survey shows a pessimistic short-term outlook for bitcoin, the long-term outlook remains more optimistic, as suggested by industry experts and some business participants.

Sentiment: Negative