JPMorgan Predicts Stablecoin Market Will Reach $500 Billion by 2028—Less Than Some Optimistic Estimates

JPMorgan strategists forecast that the stablecoin market will grow to approximately $500 billion over the next three years. This projection represents significant expansion from today’s levels but remains considerably lower than more bullish forecasts that anticipate growth to between $1 trillion and $2 trillion by 2028.

The $500 billion figure reflects JPMorgan’s belief that crypto-native use cases—like trading, decentralized finance (DeFi), and internal funds—is driving most demand (accounting for about 88%), with traditional payment applications representing only 6%. According to the report, JPMorgan expects limited adoption by everyday consumers or a shift from conventional banking products, due to barriers like low yields and conversion friction.

Unlike more aggressive predictions, JPMorgan’s estimate explicitly dismisses the likelihood of stablecoins replacing bank deposits or money-market funds. The firm highlights the important difference between centralized, regulated systems (like China’s e-CNY or Alipay), and more decentralized stablecoin networks. The need to maintain regulations, compliance standards, and transparency remain barriers to broader adoption.

Still, JPMorgan doesn’t rule out steady growth within the crypto sector. If regulatory frameworks like the U.S. GENIUS Act come into effect, the bank acknowledges there could be a “modest upside” in adoption—but feels such legislation may not spark widespread mainstream usage.